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The risks for the stock market are building up and the markets are still being in an optimistic mode, so one could see a correction ahead, believes Devina Mehra of First Global. “That’s the market’s way of tricking you.”
“It’s a situation when the finance minister comes on the channel and says the drought situation is worrying but the markets continue to go up. It’s a situation where people say global markets may go down so money will be diverted into India and it will do well. Or if global markets fare well, India will anyway do well,” Mehra said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
Heavyweights like Bharti, Reliance Communication, Reliance Industries and NTPC would weigh on index’s upside, she said, adding that the various risks that the markets faced were the government borrowing and high inflation.
Stocks-wise, Mehra said midcaps were looking good but the midcap may last only for a few more weeks. She was negative on metals and mining stocks. “The commodity boom is over for now. The China buying story is over for now,” she said.
Power stocks were fully valued, Mehra said, and added that there may not be more upside in the sector.
Q: What is your sense, where is the market heading next from where we have reached in the last three months, essentially trapped in a bit of a trading range?
A: The risks are building up; we are still in a very optimistic mode. So we are still in a mode where the Finance Minister comes on the channel and talks about drought and market goes up. So for a while we can keep saying that the drought doesn’t matter, that the global commodity sell-off doesn’t matter, that China coming down doesn’t matter — that is always the market’s way that it will trick you into believing that none of that matters but overtime it builds up and it starts to show.
It is a reverse of what was happening very early in this calendar year where your mind was refusing to accept some of the good numbers that were coming through on cement and later on auto and so on. Right now, we are bit on the other side and it’s not as if it is going to happen tomorrow. But if you look at a week to a month’s perspective, the risks are definitely building up and not just for India, if you look at the emerging market and particularly the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) set you are going to be impacted.
Right now you are in a mode where if global markets are not doing well, India should do well because the money will come here or if the global markets are doing, well, then India will anyway do well. The mind is set towards taking the positives but those are the risks. If you look at just at our market, particularly the largecaps, there are risks in many of them because most of them never did become that very cheap and from there the index doubled. So right now you will have a lot of heavyweights, which will weigh down on the index in terms of not having a tremendous upside whether it is telecom stocks — Bharti, RComm, RIL, ONGC, NTPC — none of those we see as making huge moves on the upside or for that matter banks, cement space are also tiring out, so those are the risks.
Midcaps would now look slightly better because they were impacted negatively when the market just dried out, particularly for the primary markets and the qualified institutional placement
(QIP) because a lot of them became heavily capital constrained. So the capital coming through has meant positive things on the fundamentals for some of them, so that has been relatively slightly better space.
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OUR ULTIMATE TARGET BSE SENSEX-9071 TO 8100 NIFTY 2800 TO 2425, IN CASE OF WORST CONDITION THEN BSE WILL 5005 AND NIFTY-1500.
+919829168472,+919460220693,+919752348571
SEE LATEST UPDATE -21-12-2008
CLAP CLAP CLAP SENSEX HIT OUR ULTIMATE TARGET 9071.
ONLY TECHNICAL ANALYST CAN PREDICT THE MARKET TREND. IT'S 100% GUARANTEE.
OUR NEXT BULL RUN MAGICAL SENSEX TGT-29302 DATE-12-10-2008 CUT AND PAST IN UR COMPUTER.
Monthly (20-11-2008 To 19-12-2008) High Volatility Expected
S3-1584, S2-1839, S1-2253 [NIFTY SPOT] R1-2795, R2-3080, R3-3336.
S3-5690, S2-6456, S1-7697 [SENSEX] R1-9321, R2-10178, R3-10945.
Weekly Trend (17-11-2008 to 21-11-2008) Volatile and Mix
S3-2487, S2-2588, S1-2779 [NIFTY SPOT] R1-2869, R2-3015, R3-3161.
S3-8272, S2-8616, S1-9269 [SENSEX] R1-9575, R2-10072, R3-10570.
21-11-2008 Friday
DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH
TODAY'S MOST IMPORTANT
HIGH ALERT--------------------->
(31-10-2008)
IF NIFTY SPOT DO NOT CROSS 3222 AND SENSEX-10885 THEN.....
Ready for a Another big correction up to 2253 to 1309( Nifty) and SENSEX - 7697 to 4590.
There is no strength in the market but continuously market went to fall from 7 days, so one bounce back is very important but if Indian market take cue from the world market then it will again live in the falling channel. If Friday also market will open red then please do no short on lower level because from the lower level bounce back can come.
On the Friday if Nifty Future trade above the level of 2556 then it can go above the level of 2609, 2636 to 2725 but after break the level of 2556 if Nifty Future also go to break the level of 2514 then it can go below the level of 2466, 2460 to 2371.
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Tips:- 21-11-2008 SSL- Strict Stop Loss.
1) Buy BANKINDIA Above @ 243 Target 251-260 to 270.SSL-239.
2) Buy BHARTI Above @ 594 Target 604-615 to 620.SSL-589.
3) Buy COLGATE Above @ 389 Target 395-400 to 415.SSL-386.
4) Buy HPCL Above @ 224 Target 229-234 to 236.SSL-222.
5) Buy ONGC Above @ 652 Target 675-696 to 708.SSL-642.
6) Sell RELIANCE Below @ 1054 Target 1031-1002 to 992.SSL-1065.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
NIFTY UPPER HURDLE -2633,2703,2719,2843. AND SENSEX-8584,8688,8740,8941.
NIFTY DOWN- 2493,2424,2406,2284. AND SENSEX- 8331,8184,8176,7931.
NIFTY FUTURE UP-2609,2636,2664,2725.AND DOWN-2521,2460,2371,2333.
Main Target level nifty--- 4033, 3484 & 2604 sensex-- 13538, 11727 & 9071.( date -21-03-2008)
5DMA 10DMA 15DMA 20DMA 25DMA 30DMA 50DMA 200DMA
NIFTY 2779 2929 3079 3214 3384 3444 3760 4487
NIFTY FUTURE 2778 2928 3081 3223
SENSEX 9251 9740 10230 10686 11114
BUY SIGNAL NIFTY SPOT---ABOVE 2603, NF--2556 AND SENSEX--8488 TGT NIFTY 6363 NF 6386 SENSEX 21381
SELL SIGNAL NIFTY SPOT---BELOW-2534, NF--2514 AND SENSEX--8369 TGT NIFTY 1309 NF 1321 SENSEX -- 4590
Please Exit in GOLD, SILVER & CRUDE OIL FREE FALL EXPECTED AT ANY TIME
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if sensex can not support 15003 & 13538 then be ready for big correction
New Flash
update on 08-03-2008 at 10.30 pm
NEW EQUATION:-----------> if sensex & Nifty hold and do not break--- 15003. nifty 4477 then mkt will go up and tgt-------> sensex 24244 nifty 7465 nf 7455 and then after mkt will make new high and break all upper targets.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCLOSER: - Please kindly note that this is a purely technical advice as our family members or we haven't any share or not any open position of the companies shares as mentioned. We are not at all dealing with these companies.
Disclaimer:
This opinions mentioned therein are for informational purposes and is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report.We (all the PSP editor’s) do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document
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1) Sell BOB Below @ 211 Target 208-203 to 192. SSL 225.

2) Sell BHEL Below @ 1422 Target 1406-1370 to 1302. SSL 1516.

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11) Sell ROLTA Below @ 281 Target 277-272 to 263. SSL 293.

12) Sell ZEETELE Below @ 220 Target 218-214 to 206. SSL 231.

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As we continuously telling you that there is no strength in the market, and still it is same, because bullish of the market from the 2 days is just a technical bounce back and nothing else .do not assume this bull run as bullishness because the RSI of the market is being bearish, and in 1 or 2 days the big movement in the market is going to be come in the market, and I will be bullish and it will make the market bearish, so do not do any purchasing at the higher level.

If today NF trades above 4625 then it can go 4686, 4721 to 4831, but if NF breaks 4625, and then breaks 4575 then a sudden sharp fall can be seen, and it can go 4502, 4393 to 4343.

1) Sell NF Below @ 4625 Target 4576-4502 to 4393. SSL 4721.
2) Sell BHEL Below @ 1536 Target 1521-1495 to 1446. SSL 1601.
3) Sell CMC Below @ 671 Target 662-646 to 615. SSL 713.
4) Sell HCL_TECH Below @ 291 Target 289-283 to 274. SSL 304.
5) Sell RCOM Below @ 529 Target 524-515 to 499. SSL 550.
6) Buy ACC Above 638 Target 644-647 to 659. SSL 626.
7) Buy BHARTI Above @ 636 Target 844-853 to 874. SSL 809.
8) Buy CANBANK Above @ 208 Target 214-219 to 233. SSL 192.
9) Buy HINDALCO Above @ 173 Target 176-179 to 185. SSL 166.
10) Buy RANBAXY Above @ 582 Target 594-603 to 629. SSL 553.
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The high of Monday market will play a very crucial role today, if market gives closing after crossing it then the bull run can be seen for 1or 2 days. But if it does not happened the same then this level become a big resistance, to cross that resistance market will take a few more days. Market will make new lows. Inflation is d biggest danger of the market, which will pull down the market again and again, so take an exit whenever there is a higher level and take the entry back in the low.
If today NF crosses 4595 then it can go 4620, 4654 to 4731 but the resistance of 4610 is very strong, but if NF breaks 4563 then it can go 4543, 4499 to 4378.
Trade very carefully today because market can be very volatile.
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1) Buy ASIANPAINT Above @ 1280 Target 1292-1300 to 1325. SSL 1252.
2) Buy NF Above @ 4595 Target 4620-4654 to 4731.SSL 4495.
3) Buy BHARTIAIRTEL Above @ 842 Target 857-871 to 906. SSL 801.
4) Buy M&M Above @ 577 Target 585-593 to 614. SSL 551.
5) Buy PNB Above @ 456 Target 464-472 to 491. SSL 433.
6) Sell NF Below @ 4563 Target 4543-4499 to 4422. SSl 4654.
7) Sell BAJAJAUTO Below @ 499 Target 492-481 to 459. SSl 527.
8) Sell BANKINDIA Below @ 271 Target 267-261 to 249. SSL 286.
9) Sell Dr.REDDY Below @ 715 Target 702-686 to 651. SSL 758.
10) Sell LICHSGFIN Below @ 298 Target 294-289 to 279. SSL 312.
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As we were saying continuously that market is in the bearish zone & there is no strength coming in the market & still no strength & this week inflation data 8.75 has come which is going to increase continuously. This time there is no impact show of rate hike due to oil & gas but it impact will start then inflation will be the 10% above which bad impact will be on the market.

Today if Nifty Future go to cross the level of 4504 then it can go up to the level of 4532, 4565 to 4643 but here once again a selling pressure can get to see in the market which can do pull down to the market again but if Nifty Future break the level of 4471 then it can go below the level of 4454, 4409 to 4288.
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1) Buy BHARTIAIRTEL Above @ 819 Target 829-838 to 862. SSL 790.
2) Buy CHENNPETRO Above @ 339 Target 345-350 to 364. SSL 322.
3) Buy ICICIBANK Above @ 766 Target 778-789 to 817. SSL 734.
4) Buy ONGC Above @ 848 Target 867-890 to 943. SSL 782.
5) Buy RANBAXY Above @ 568 Target 581-592 to 622. SSL 533.
6) Buy RELCAPITAL Above @ 1138 Target 1160-1185 to 1243. SSL 1065.
7) Buy TATAMOTORS Above @ 518 Target 525-533 to 551. SSL 496.
8) Buy NF Above @ 4504 Target 4532-4565 to 4643. SSL 4454.
9) Sell NF Below 4471 Target 4454-4409 to 4288. SSL 4565.
10) Sell BAJAJAUTO Below @ 506 Target 498-486 to 462. SSL 538.
11) Sell CORPBANK Below @ 315 Target 310-304 to 289. SSL 333.
12) Sell HDFC Below @ 2127 Target 2089-2043 to 1940. SSL 2247.
13) Sell HINDALCO Below @ 176 Target 174-172 to 167. SSL 182.
14) Sell KOTAKBANK Below @ 613 Target 604-592 to 567. SSL 645.
15) Sell NTPC Below @ 161 Target 158-153 to 144. SSL 173.
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